Amma should watch out
Growth rates and state elections
Indian Express, May 10, 2006
Does a drop in the State GDP growth rate spell trouble for the party
in power when state assembly elections come?
We looked at the growth performance in 17 states before the latest
state election comparing growth rate in the state under the incumbent
to historical averages.
In 10 out of 17 cases we found that either poor growth performance by
the state was followed by a change in the party in power, or if the
performance was above the historical average, the party stayed in
Obviously, that is not the only thing that matters and political
alliances are crucial.. However, it indicates that the rising
aspirations of the electorate in a fast growth economy cannot be
ignored by the ruling party.
How have the economies of the 4 states Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and
West Bengal performed under the incumbent governments compared to the
the previous government. For that we compare growth rates in the
periods 1996-2001 and 2001-2004/5.
As the table below shows, West Bengal saw a rise in growth rate from
6.97 percent to 7.22 percent, something which bodes well for the CPM.
In Assam state GDP growth went up from 2.16 percent during 1996-2001
to 4.53 percent during 2001-2005 which is good news for the Gogoi
In Kerela there was a marginal decline from 4.81 to 4.79 percent over
Tamil Nadu saw an sharp decline in growth from 6.33 percent to 1.97
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